Tag: prediction markets

  • Coinbase Made $719 Million in Profit — but Almost All of It Came From Crypto Gains

    Coinbase Made $719 Million in Profit — but Almost All of It Came From Crypto Gains

    Coinbase, America’s biggest listed crypto exchange, reported a $719 million profit for the third quarter of 2026. That sounds like a great quarter — until you look one line deeper. Almost all of that profit, $715 million, came from gains on crypto the company itself holds as an investment. Strip those gains out, and the core business earned just $78 million. That difference is the real story of Coinbase’s quarter.

    What Happened

    Coinbase reported third-quarter results on 29 October 2026, for the three months ended 30 September 2026. Headline net income was $719 million, reversing two consecutive quarterly losses and up from $433 million a year earlier. Earnings per share came in at $2.51, compared with expectations of a loss, according to company coverage.

    Under accounting rules Coinbase adopted, Bitcoin and Ether it holds on its own balance sheet are marked to market every quarter — if their prices rise, the gain flows straight into reported profit, even if Coinbase did not sell anything. Coinbase started with $718.7 million of net income, backed out a $715 million gain on crypto held for investment and a $39.2 million gain on other investments, then added back tax effects to land at $77.7 million of adjusted net income, rounded to $78 million. In plain terms: about 99% of headline profit was a paper gain on crypto Coinbase already owned, not fees collected from customers.

    Why It Happened

    The quarter itself was softer for crypto trading. Total revenue was $1.22 billion, flat from the previous quarter but 35% below the same period last year, as overall crypto market spot trading volume fell about 10%. Transaction revenue — fees from people trading — was $590 million. Subscription and services revenue grew 3% from the previous quarter to $570 million, making up 49% of net revenue, including stablecoin revenue up 5% to $307 million and other services less dependent on daily trading.

    Average USDC held in Coinbase products reached $22 billion, another all-time high and the fourteenth consecutive quarter of records, up 49% from a year ago. Coinbase’s share of global crypto trading volume reached 10.7%, its fourth consecutive quarterly gain. Prediction markets passed $200 million in annualised revenue, becoming one of the fastest-growing products in the company’s history, and Coinbase One subscribers hit an all-time high, up 24% year over year. Adjusted EBITDA was $333 million, up 60% from the previous quarter and the company’s fifteenth consecutive quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA, down from $801 million a year ago — a genuine sign of operating discipline.

    Why It Matters

    A big headline profit does not always mean the underlying business had a big quarter; sometimes assets a company holds simply went up in price. For Coinbase, the shift toward subscriptions, stablecoins and prediction markets matters more long-term than one quarter’s paper gain, because those revenues are steadier than trading fees. Timing also matters: just days after these results, crypto stocks sold off sharply following the Binance hack, with Coinbase among the fallers — about industry confidence, not Coinbase’s own results — showing how quickly sentiment can change in crypto.

    What Happens Next

    Coinbase gave an early look at the current quarter: transaction revenue through 25 October 2026 was approximately $165 million, and it guided subscription and services revenue to $550 million to $630 million for the fourth quarter. Investors will watch whether trading activity recovers after the Binance shock, whether USDC balances keep growing, and whether prediction markets continue fast growth. They will also watch the same accounting effect in reverse: if crypto prices fall in the fourth quarter, paper gains could turn into paper losses and drag headline profit down even if the operating business is steady.

    Final Thoughts

    Coinbase did not have a bad quarter — it made money, grew market share, and kept steadier businesses growing — but calling it a $719 million success story without the footnote would be misleading. The honest version: Coinbase’s core business earned $78 million, operating profit improved a lot from the previous quarter, and a $715 million rise in the value of crypto it holds did most of the work on the headline number. Understanding that difference separates reading a headline from understanding a company.

    Key figures:

    • Net income: $719 million (Q3 2026)
    • Gain on crypto held for investment: $715 million
    • Adjusted net income: $78 million
    • Adjusted EBITDA: $333 million, up 60% quarter over quarter
    • Total revenue: $1.22 billion, flat quarter over quarter, down 35% year over year
    • Subscription and services revenue: $570 million (49% of net revenue)
    • Average USDC held: $22 billion, up 49% year over year
    • Global trading market share: 10.7%

    Disclaimer: This article is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

    Sources: Coinbase Q3 2026 earnings announcement (October 29, 2026); Motley Fool earnings coverage and call transcript (October 29-30, 2026).

  • Kalshi Is Now Worth $40 Billion After Another $1 Billion Funding Round

    Kalshi Is Now Worth $40 Billion After Another $1 Billion Funding Round

    A company built around betting on future events is now worth $40 billion. Prediction-market operator Kalshi announced on Thursday, October 29, 2026 that it raised $1 billion in a new funding round valuing it at $40 billion — nearly 82% higher than its $22 billion valuation just five months ago. It is one of the fastest rises in private-market value in recent years, and it says a lot about how mainstream prediction markets have become.

    What Happened

    The new round, Kalshi’s Series G, was co-led by Sequoia Capital and Wellington Management, with Tiger Global Management and Dragoneer Investment Group also taking part, according to Reuters. It is Kalshi’s second $1 billion raise in roughly five months. The previous round, in May 2026, was led by Coatue and valued the company at $22 billion. Kalshi was valued at about $5 billion in October 2025 and about $11 billion last December. In about a year, its private valuation has grown roughly eightfold.

    Kalshi said it will use the money to expand its exchange, reach more users around the world, and launch new products including indices, single-stock perpetual futures and markets for trading computing power. It also recently announced a partnership with S&P Dow Jones Indices to build indices based on prediction markets, and partnerships with the NBA.

    What Is a Prediction Market, Anyway?

    Instead of buying a stock, you buy a contract tied to a future event — for example, whether a team wins a championship, whether an election goes a certain way, or whether an economic number comes in above or below a forecast. The price works like a probability: a contract trading at 60 cents that pays out $1 if the event happens effectively implies about a 60% chance. As news changes, the price moves.

    Kalshi runs a federally regulated exchange in the United States, started with sports and election contracts, and is now pushing hard into financial markets — the same territory as traditional exchanges like CME and ICE.

    Why It Happened

    First, trading volume. Kalshi says its overall annualised trading volume now passes $1 trillion, and its non-sports markets alone now generate more than $1 billion in annualised revenue, according to The Wall Street Journal as cited by CoinTelegraph. Data provider DefiLlama put its trading volume over the past 30 days at about $15.8 billion.

    Second, the calendar: a busy year including the 2026 FIFA World Cup, the NFL season and trading around the US midterm elections has brought in new users.

    Third, expansion: in September 2026, Kalshi entered the perpetual futures market after approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Perpetual futures let traders bet on price moves without an expiry date and are popular in crypto and financial trading; adding single-stock versions would put Kalshi in direct competition with much bigger, older exchanges.

    Why It Matters

    A $40 billion valuation puts Kalshi in the same league as Coinbase, a public company around far longer, showing how far prediction markets have come. But a private valuation is not a stock price: it is set by a small number of investors in a funding round, not by millions of traders daily, and reflects what those investors think Kalshi could become, not proven profits.

    There are legal risks too. On October 28, 2026, Utah’s Attorney General filed criminal charges against Kalshi and its co-founders, Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, accusing the company of promoting illegal online gambling and allowing an undercover agent to place sports wagers through its platform. The outcome was still pending, and similar legal fights over sports contracts have followed Kalshi in other states.

    What Happens Next

    Watch whether new products — single-stock perps, leveraged event contracts and compute markets — actually attract traders or stretch Kalshi too far, and how regulators and courts treat prediction markets that look increasingly like financial exchanges and, in some cases, like sports betting. If Kalshi keeps growing its non-sports business and stays on the right side of regulators, a public listing could eventually follow, though none has been announced. If legal challenges pile up, growth could slow no matter how strong trading numbers look.

    Final Thoughts

    Kalshi’s rise from a $5 billion startup to a $40 billion company in about a year is remarkable, even by startup standards, and shows investors believe betting on events — done openly, on a regulated exchange — is becoming a normal part of finance. But a valuation can rise much faster than a business can prove itself; the next chapter will be decided less by fundraising headlines and more by whether real traders keep showing up and whether the law lets them.

    Key figures:

    • New funding: $1 billion (Series G, October 29, 2026)
    • New valuation: $40 billion, up about 82% from $22 billion in May 2026
    • Previous valuation: about $5 billion in October 2025, about $11 billion in December 2025
    • Co-leads: Sequoia Capital and Wellington Management
    • Non-sports annualised revenue: more than $1 billion
    • Overall annualised trading volume: more than $1 trillion

    Disclaimer: This article is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

    Sources: Reuters report on Kalshi’s funding round (October 29, 2026); CoinTelegraph and PYMNTS coverage of the announcement (October 29, 2026).

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