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Tag: Coinbase

  • Morgan Stanley Cuts Coinbase to Underweight and Slashes Its Price Target to $120

    Morgan Stanley Cuts Coinbase to Underweight and Slashes Its Price Target to $120

    Introduction

    Morgan Stanley has cut its view on Coinbase. Coinbase is a big company where people buy and sell crypto. Crypto means digital money, like Bitcoin. Morgan Stanley is a big bank. It now rates Coinbase as underweight. That is a simple way to say it thinks the stock may do worse than other stocks.

    What Happened

    Morgan Stanley cut Coinbase from equal-weight to underweight. Equal-weight means about the same as other stocks. Underweight means less good than other stocks. It also cut its price target from $258 to $120. A price target is a guess about what a stock could be worth later. That cut is 53%. That is more than half. Analyst Michael Cyprys wrote the note on Monday, November 2, 2026. He said, “Confidence in the earnings recovery has deteriorated.” Earnings mean the money a company makes. Recovery means getting better after a weak time.

    Why It Happened

    Crypto trading has been slow. People are trading less. That hurts Coinbase. Coinbase makes much of its money from fees when people trade. Fees are small charges for a service. When trading is slow, those fees fall. Morgan Stanley also worries about the future. It cut its 2027 revenue guess by 28%. Revenue means money coming in. It cut its 2027 adjusted EBITDA guess by 47%. EBITDA is a simple way to look at profit before some costs. For 2028, it cut revenue by 18% and adjusted EBITDA by 25%. It now expects $2.4 billion in normalized EBITDA in 2028. That is about 14% below 2025. It also cut the value it puts on that profit from 20 times to 12 times.

    The downgrade came after a weak third quarter. Coinbase reported $1.22 billion in revenue last Thursday. That was down 35% from a year earlier. Transaction revenue fell 44% to $590 million. Subscription and services revenue fell 20% to $570 million. Crypto trading volume fell 10% in the quarter. Price swings were also very small.

    Key figures:

    Old price target: $258. New price target: $120. Cut: 53%. Old rating: equal-weight. New rating: underweight. Shares in early trading: down 2.3% to $140.25. Fall last week: 10%. Third-quarter revenue: $1.22 billion, down 35% from a year earlier.

    Why It Matters

    A downgrade can change how people see a stock. It does not mean the company will fail. It means one big bank is less sure about it now. Coinbase still runs a large crypto exchange. But its main business depends on trading. When trading is quiet, money comes in more slowly. That is why this news matters to people who follow crypto stocks.

    What Happens Next

    People will watch trading activity. If more people start trading again, revenue could improve. People will also watch the next earnings report. Earnings will show if the slow time is ending. Morgan Stanley will watch the same things. Its $120 target is a guess, not a promise.

    Final Thoughts

    This is a cautious note, not a disaster story. Coinbase had a soft quarter. Morgan Stanley now expects a slower recovery. The next few months will show if that view is right. For more on Coinbase’s last quarter, see our earlier post on Coinbase’s $719 million profit.

    Disclaimer: This article is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

    Sources: CNBC, “Coinbase stock downgraded by Morgan Stanley to underweight” (November 2, 2026), https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/02/coinbase-stock-morgan-stanley-downgrade.html ; CoinDesk, “Morgan Stanley downgrades Coinbase (COIN), slashes price target 53% on weak earnings outlook” (November 2, 2026), https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/11/02/morgan-stanley-downgrades-coinbase-slashes-price-target-53-on-weak-earnings-outlook

  • Coinbase Made $719 Million in Profit — but Almost All of It Came From Crypto Gains

    Coinbase Made $719 Million in Profit — but Almost All of It Came From Crypto Gains

    Coinbase, America’s biggest listed crypto exchange, reported a $719 million profit for the third quarter of 2026. That sounds like a great quarter — until you look one line deeper. Almost all of that profit, $715 million, came from gains on crypto the company itself holds as an investment. Strip those gains out, and the core business earned just $78 million. That difference is the real story of Coinbase’s quarter.

    What Happened

    Coinbase reported third-quarter results on 29 October 2026, for the three months ended 30 September 2026. Headline net income was $719 million, reversing two consecutive quarterly losses and up from $433 million a year earlier. Earnings per share came in at $2.51, compared with expectations of a loss, according to company coverage.

    Under accounting rules Coinbase adopted, Bitcoin and Ether it holds on its own balance sheet are marked to market every quarter — if their prices rise, the gain flows straight into reported profit, even if Coinbase did not sell anything. Coinbase started with $718.7 million of net income, backed out a $715 million gain on crypto held for investment and a $39.2 million gain on other investments, then added back tax effects to land at $77.7 million of adjusted net income, rounded to $78 million. In plain terms: about 99% of headline profit was a paper gain on crypto Coinbase already owned, not fees collected from customers.

    Why It Happened

    The quarter itself was softer for crypto trading. Total revenue was $1.22 billion, flat from the previous quarter but 35% below the same period last year, as overall crypto market spot trading volume fell about 10%. Transaction revenue — fees from people trading — was $590 million. Subscription and services revenue grew 3% from the previous quarter to $570 million, making up 49% of net revenue, including stablecoin revenue up 5% to $307 million and other services less dependent on daily trading.

    Average USDC held in Coinbase products reached $22 billion, another all-time high and the fourteenth consecutive quarter of records, up 49% from a year ago. Coinbase’s share of global crypto trading volume reached 10.7%, its fourth consecutive quarterly gain. Prediction markets passed $200 million in annualised revenue, becoming one of the fastest-growing products in the company’s history, and Coinbase One subscribers hit an all-time high, up 24% year over year. Adjusted EBITDA was $333 million, up 60% from the previous quarter and the company’s fifteenth consecutive quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA, down from $801 million a year ago — a genuine sign of operating discipline.

    Why It Matters

    A big headline profit does not always mean the underlying business had a big quarter; sometimes assets a company holds simply went up in price. For Coinbase, the shift toward subscriptions, stablecoins and prediction markets matters more long-term than one quarter’s paper gain, because those revenues are steadier than trading fees. Timing also matters: just days after these results, crypto stocks sold off sharply following the Binance hack, with Coinbase among the fallers — about industry confidence, not Coinbase’s own results — showing how quickly sentiment can change in crypto.

    What Happens Next

    Coinbase gave an early look at the current quarter: transaction revenue through 25 October 2026 was approximately $165 million, and it guided subscription and services revenue to $550 million to $630 million for the fourth quarter. Investors will watch whether trading activity recovers after the Binance shock, whether USDC balances keep growing, and whether prediction markets continue fast growth. They will also watch the same accounting effect in reverse: if crypto prices fall in the fourth quarter, paper gains could turn into paper losses and drag headline profit down even if the operating business is steady.

    Final Thoughts

    Coinbase did not have a bad quarter — it made money, grew market share, and kept steadier businesses growing — but calling it a $719 million success story without the footnote would be misleading. The honest version: Coinbase’s core business earned $78 million, operating profit improved a lot from the previous quarter, and a $715 million rise in the value of crypto it holds did most of the work on the headline number. Understanding that difference separates reading a headline from understanding a company.

    Key figures:

    • Net income: $719 million (Q3 2026)
    • Gain on crypto held for investment: $715 million
    • Adjusted net income: $78 million
    • Adjusted EBITDA: $333 million, up 60% quarter over quarter
    • Total revenue: $1.22 billion, flat quarter over quarter, down 35% year over year
    • Subscription and services revenue: $570 million (49% of net revenue)
    • Average USDC held: $22 billion, up 49% year over year
    • Global trading market share: 10.7%

    Disclaimer: This article is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

    Sources: Coinbase Q3 2026 earnings announcement (October 29, 2026); Motley Fool earnings coverage and call transcript (October 29-30, 2026).

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